Microsoft’s Depressed Stock Price Attracts Flock of Value Investors

August 31, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Investment Ideas

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Long Investment

Ravi Nagarajan submits:

This is the sixth in a series of articles covering “unpopular” larger companies. Benjamin Graham believed that such companies may present opportunities for enterprising investors. We discussed the Graham approach in more detail in a recent article.

At the turn of the century, few observers could have possibly foreseen that Microsoft (MSFT) would become a favorite bargain purchase for value investors in 2010. The dot com boom was in the process of peaking and any company even vaguely associated with software or technology traded at stratospheric multiples of earnings.


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Microsoft: Assessing Ballmer’s Track Record

August 3, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Investment Ideas

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Editor’s Pick

Ravi Nagarajan submits:

When Bill Gates promoted Steve Ballmer to the chief executive position at Microsoft (MSFT) over ten years ago, the company was flying high in terms of investor perceptions and had a cutting edge image placing it at the forefront of America’s high tech boom. Despite initial setbacks during the mid 1990s related to understanding the transformative power of the internet, Microsoft quickly recovered and expectations for the company’s future were very high in early 2000. Fast forward one decade: Today, Microsoft is perceived as a stodgy company that may still generate a great deal of cash but is hopelessly behind the technology curve and may be destined for inevitable decline. Is this a fair portrayal and, if so, to what extent is Mr. Ballmer to blame?

Strong Financial Results …


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Earnings Preview: Expectations Running High for Microsoft Report

July 19, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Investment Ideas

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Long Investment

Wall Street Cheat Sheet submits:

By David Gibbs

Earnings Estimates (High/Mean/Low): $0.53 / $0.464 / $0.42

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is expected to report significant YOY gains when it reports FQ4 earnings this Thursday after the bell. Mean estimates are currently pegged at $0.464 on revenue of $15.3 billion, well ahead of year-ago earnings of $0.36 and $13.1 billion.


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It’s Time for Microsoft’s Second ‘Inception’

July 8, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Investment Ideas

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Editor’s Pick

TechCrunch submits:

By MG Siegler

If you’ve watched television at all over the past two months, you’ve likely seen the trailer for Inception, the new film by Christopher Nolan. The trailer is great, and the film looks like it could be even better. In it, Leonardo DiCaprio plays Cobb, a special agent whose job it is to construct dreams in order to lure people inside and take their ideas — a tactic they call “inception”.


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The Case for Microsoft

June 23, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Investment Ideas

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Long Investment

Bret Jensen submits:

The market provided another good example today of why we are currently risk averse. The euro fell as concerns about Europe resurfaced once again. In addition, housing sales were poor, the market reacted badly to the administration’s continued pursuit of a drilling moratorium despite court setbacks, and the Baltic index declined for the 17th straight day; hardly the harbinger of expanding economic growth. This all contributed to significant losses across the board. In this type of environment it pays to stay defensive. Stick to those equities with pristine balance sheets, rock solid business models, reasonable valuations, and decent dividend yields. Most of the stocks that we are finding using these criteria are in the Large Cap Blue Chip area – Vodafone (VOD), Pfizer (PFE), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Exxon Mobile (XOM), etc. The next selection we would like to highlight is Microsoft (MSFT).
Overview: Microsoft is the world’s largest software maker, primarily as a result of its near monopoly position in desktop operating systems and its Office productivity suite. The combination of these two strongholds pose a formidable barrier to entry for competitors, in our opinion. MSFT has used the strong cash flows from these businesses to fund research and development of other markets, including home entertainment consoles and Internet online advertising. The company has five operating business divisions: Windows and Windows Live, Server and Tools, Online Services Business, Microsoft Business, and Entertainment and Devices.
Prognosis: The stock price is about where it was nine years ago despite more than doubling earnings in that timeframe, a rising dividend yield and being in the early stages of some important new launches. It also is making some good progress with its Bing search engine; which continues to gain market share as well as its XBox Platform. We believe the stock is ready to outperform the market over the next 12 to 18 months. We based this on the following:
Valuation: MSFT is selling for approximately 12.5 times this year’s consensus earnings. It has a dividend yield of two percent and over $3.50 per share of net cash on its balance sheet. It also has a triple AAA rated balance sheet.
Catalysts: There are several factors that we believe should provide support for a higher stock price in the near and medium term:
1. Rollout of Windows 7 has been well received and is in the early stages of adoption. Many corporations passed on Vista, so this should be a large upgrade cycle. Office 2010 should also contribute significant revenue growth when it rolls out.
2. Bing continues to improve and take market share slowly in the search market
3. Corporate balance sheets are in fantastic shape compared with consumer balance sheets and with their historical averages as far as cash available for investments
4. Consensus is for even more revenue growth in 2011 than in 2010 and earnings are expected to hit $2.30 a share
Recommendation(s): We believe the stock should be trading at a more appropriate 14-15 times next year’s projected earnings of $2.30. Given stock’s prospects and solid dividend yield, our target Price is $32-$35, up from the current price of $25.77.

Disclosure: Long MSFT


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Microsoft: The Unfriendliness Discount

June 5, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Investment Ideas

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Long Investment

William Smead submits:

At Smead Capital Management (SCM) we have eight criteria for selecting common stocks. Our first five criteria must be met at all times, while one of the remaining three may be temporarily overlooked. We only ignore weakness in one criteria if we believe the strength of the remaining criteria gives the company the time needed to qualify across the board. At SCM, we give grace in these instances because they typically coincide with a price discount which gives us an attractive entry point for initiating a position in our portfolio.

Shareholder friendliness is one of our criteria and can be waived temporarily. We prefer to have leadership with a great vision of the future, a willingness to keep costs down and the wisdom to allocate free cash flow well.

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An In-Depth Look at Microsoft’s Beat Quarter

April 24, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Investment Ideas

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Long Investment

Zacks.com submits:

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) reported third quarter 2010 earnings that beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3 cents, or 7.14%. Revenue was basically in line, beating by 0.4%.

Revenue

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Why Microsoft and Oracle Are Safer Long-Term Bets Than Google and SAP

April 6, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Investment Ideas

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Long Investment

Naveen Selvaraj submits:

I believe that software/Internet stocks, with at least two profitable and long-standing businesses, will outperform the businesses deriving the majority of their profits from a single line of business over the next business cycle (2010-2013).

Hence, Microsoft (MSFT), with two successful business lines in productivity and system software, will outperform a company like Google (GOOG), which derives most of its profits (I want to stress profits and not just revenues) from the search business.

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Microsoft: Financial Gauge Analysis for the December 2009 Quarter

February 15, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Investment Ideas

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Long Investment

Neil Carvin submits:

This post provides updated Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value metrics and our Financial Gauge scores for Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). The metrics were calculated using data in Microsoft’s financial reports, including the 10-Q for the quarter that ended 31 December 2009.


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Lost: If Microsofties Can’t Live Together, Microsoft May Die Alone

February 5, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Investment Ideas

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Editor’s Pick

TechCrunch submits:

By MG Siegler

There’s a very interesting op-ed piece in The New York Times today entitled Microsoft’s Creative Destruction. In it, the author details what he feels are the reasons that Microsoft (MSFT) has failed to innovate at the same pace as their competitors over the years. Big deal, right? After all, a lot of people write these types of pieces all the time. The difference this time? It’s by Dick Brass, who was a vice president at Microsoft for seven years, from 1997 to 2004.

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