eBay: Growth at the Right Bid

October 15, 2009 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Investment Ideas

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Editor’s Pick

Chuck Carnevale submits:

eBay (EBAY) is a truly great American success story. According to eBay’s March 2009 Three-Year Roadmap for Growth:

"We are positioning this company to compete and win across a range of profitable ecommerce platforms focused on connecting buyers and sellers across the platform of their choice."

Founded in San Jose, California on September 3, 1995, eBay has carved out a unique position in the retail space based on e-commerce. Earnings growth has averaged an incredible compounded 48% per year (See purple circle in Figure 1 below).

Fig. 1. EBAY 13yr EPS and Price Correlation
click to enlarge
Fig. 1.  EBAY 13yr EPS and Price Correlation
In many ways, eBay (EBAY) has become a victim of its own success. eBay first set the bar high with its IPO on September 24, 1998. Within only a few months its stock value peaked at close to a thirty-fold increase and earnings were doubling almost every year and sometimes more than doubling. (See red arrow and red circle on Figure 1).
After eBay’s stock price peaked at just under $32 per split adjusted share in 2000, its value was almost cut in half throughout 2001-2002.
However, from the period 2001-2004 eBay established itself as a growth stock extraordinaire. Earnings grew by 80% during the recession of 2001 and averaged over 85% per year compounded through 2001-2004. Even though eBay’s (EBAY) shares started out overvalued with a PE ratio of roughly 135 times earnings (orange circle) at the beginning of 2001, shareholders enjoyed an incredible return of 48.6% per annum (See purple circle in Figure 2 below) for the four-year period. This exeplary performance occurred during one of the worst bear markets on record.
Fig. 2. EBAY 2001-2004 EPS History Plus Price Performance
Fig. 2.  EBAY 2001-2004 EPS History Plus Price Performance
When contrasted to the performance of the S&P 500 over the same time frame, it’s clear that eBay’s results were astonishing. See Figure 3 below.
Fig. 3. S&P 500 2001-2004 EPS History Plus Price Performance
Fig. 3. S&P 500 2001-2004 EPS History Plus Price Performance
The point we are striving to make is that eBay (EBAY) created a new and unique category of retail selling that it had all to itself for the better part of a decade. Therefore, explosive growth was easily achieved. Common sense says that those glory growth days are forever gone, however, that does not mean that attractive above-average growth for eBay is over. In Figure 4 below, we plot the consensus five-year growth forecast of 18% (15-20% as we see it) for eBay by 20 leading analysts reporting to Zacks. This depicts what we mean by “growth at the right bid”. In other words, we see eBay as very attractively valued today based on realistic assumptions for achievable future growth.
Fig. 4. EBAY EPS 5yr Forecast
Fig. 4. EBAY EPS 5yr Forecast
The thesis for eBay’s (EBAY) growth is admittedly somewhat cloudy, but not without plenty of opportunity. Legitimate questions remain as their business model transitions from pure auction to a blend of auction and fixed pricing. Due to competition for auction from formidable competitors with cost advantages, developing a successful fixed business is important. After struggling for several quarters due to the recession, recent sales indications for their fixed-pricing business models appear promising.
The current desire to sell Skype is being challenged by its founders. Frankly, we are ambivalent towards the transaction. On the one hand eBay can focus more on core strategies sans Skype. While on the other hand, Skype offers strong growth potential in our view. Therefore, keeping Skype would not be all that bad, especially since eBay does not need the cash. eBay’s enormous free cash flow generation, strong cash hoard and healthy balance sheet puts them in the catbird seat. eBay enjoys the luxury of not needing to tap credit markets to fund its growth. See Figure 5 below which plots eBay’s free cash flow over earnings. (Orange shaded area with “F”).
Fig. 5. EBAY 13yr EPS with Free Cash Flow
Fig. 5. EBAY 13yr EPS with Free Cash Flow
We believe the real growth story today for eBay (EBAY) is PayPal. As online shopping continues to proliferate and expand worldwide, the need and world-wide potential for PayPal appears limitless. eBay certainly possesses the financial resources and we believe business acumen to exploit this opportunity.
At the end of the day, eBay (EBAY) is an extraordinary company with enormous resources at their disposal. This allows them to explore numerous avenues of future growth. Promising business lines such as StubHub, Kijiji, Shopping.com, Half.com, ProStores, Rent.com, and many others are merely scratching the surface of what’s possible for eBay. They may not all pan out as hoped, but odds are that enough will to generate the growth that validates today’s attractive valuation.
eBay (EBAY) is a fast growing company whose tentacles reach into 30 countries worldwide. Consequently, we believe eBay is a sound investment for prudent long-term investors seeking growth of capital. Although its future growth will likely not be as fast as its past, it should, in our view, remain an above-average grower currently selling at an attractive entry point.
Full Disclosure: Long EBAY at time of writing.

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eBay Dangles a Carrot to Pacify Its Sellers

August 20, 2009 by  
Filed under News

Zacks.com submits:

eBay Inc. (EBAYAnalyst Report) recently revised its incentive scale in an attempt to pacify ruffled sellers who are facing shrinking profit margins. The company also expects the new policies to encourage the best sellers to stick with eBay.

The company now promises a 20% discount to top-rated sellers on its Direct Seller Ratings (DSR) system. The rating system outlines four criteria based on which the vendor and the buying experience are evaluated by the buyer.

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GM to sell cars on eBay

August 10, 2009 by  
Filed under Daily Alerts

WASHINGTON – GENERAL Motors and eBay announced on Monday that the US automaker, which emerged from bankruptcy protection a month ago, will begin selling new cars and trucks on the online auction site.

The programme will initially involve 225 Chevrolet, Buick, GMC and Pontiac dealerships in California, GM and eBay said in a statement.

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Cisco: Perfect Home for eBay’s Skype?

August 6, 2009 by  
Filed under News

The 451 Group: Inorganic Growth submits:

by Thomas Rasmussen

In eBay’s (EBAY) recent report on second-quarter results, the online auction house announced a somewhat disappointing performance in its two core businesses, Payments and Marketplaces, but did see strong results from a surprising source: Skype. The VoIP service increased year-over-year revenue by 25%, while overall sales declined as the legacy Marketplaces revenue sank 14%. Skype revenue hit $170m in the quarter, bringing sales for the division over the past year to $587m. The service is closing in on a half-billion users, finishing June with 481 million users. All in all, that’s a solid performance for a unit largely considered the bastard child of the Silicon Valley auction giant.

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Amazon vs. eBay: 2 Charts Say It All

August 4, 2009 by  
Filed under News

Scot Wingo submits:

James Mitchell at a little firm called Goldman Sachs, put out an interesting report Monday that seemed to address concerns around pressure that video game console declining sales put on Amazon (AMZN) for Q2. In there he looks at some of the ‘heartbeat’ metrics of the business and compares them to eBay as a comp.

They say a picture is worth a thousand words and I thought in this case I’d put two out there for a nice 2k word message. The bottom line is that while eBay (EBAY) definitely is stabilizing, they aren’t out of the woods yet and let’s not forget they face a competitor unlike any foe they have ever faced.
Figure 1: Amazon vs. eBay User growth since 2006

09q2_ebay_vs_amzn_pic1
Figure 2: Amazon vs. eBay Y/Y unit growth rates (unit = items sold via the respective site)

09q2_ebay_vs_amzn_pic2
Disclosure: I am long Amazon and Google. eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor.

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eBay’s Skype Fiasco: What Were They Thinking?

August 3, 2009 by  
Filed under News

ashkanAshkan Karbasfrooshan submits:

It is astounding that eBay forked (EBAY) over $3B for Skype and didn’t actually buy Skype’s underlying technology.

It is amazing that they didn’t realize this and outright criminal that they didn’t get a fully-paid, irrevocable, perpetual, non-exclusive (exclusive for the purposes of international calling) license.

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eBay Is a Winning Bid – Barron’s

August 2, 2009 by  
Filed under News

eBay (EBAY) is evolving and becoming more profitable, and its PayPal and Skype units make the company look even better. Barron’s Michael Santoli says investors should bet on eBay’s continued growth.

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eBay: Still Clouds over Skype IPO

August 1, 2009 by  
Filed under News

Tech Confidential submits:

Despite a few ominous signals, eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) insists that it’s moving full-steam ahead with its spinoff of Internet phone service Skype.

The online auctioneer felt compelled to issue a statement saying that its plans to spin off the unit, which it acquired in 2005 for $2.6 billion, are still on track following some interesting details in its quarterly report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission this week.

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eBay: Still Clouds Over Skype IPO

July 31, 2009 by  
Filed under News

Tech Confidential submits:

Despite a few ominous signals, eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) insists that it’s moving full-steam ahead with its spinoff of Internet phone service Skype.

The online auctioneer felt compelled to issue a statement saying that its plans to spin off the unit, which it acquired in 2005 for $2.6 billion, are still on track following some interesting details in its quarterly report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission this week.

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eBay: Essential Data

July 31, 2009 by  
Filed under News

eBay Investor submits:

eBay Getting its Groove Back?

Investors have been very optimistic about eBay’s prospects. Today the stock is hovering around $22.00 – more than doubling since it’s March 9th low of $9.91. eBay’s 2nd quarter earnings looked promising and the metrics look like eBay is finally capitalizing on the weak economy.

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