US: Employment Concerns Continue to Weigh on Confidence

Consumer confidence rose 6.7 points to 54.1 in August, with future expectations accounting for most of the rise. Consumers are still worried about current economic conditions, particularly the scarcity of jobs. Consumer confidence rose 6.7 points to 54.1 in August, marking the first rise since May. Most of the improvement was in expectations, which rose 10.1 points to 73.5. The number of consumers reported expecting conditions to get better over the next six months rose 4.0 points to 22.4, the

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Euroland: Ifo moves at super speed

The Ifo economic expectations indicator increased sharply for the eighth month in a row. This is the strongest monthly rise since reunification and confirms the positive news we received from ZEW and PMI last week. We expect to see continued increases in Ifo, ZEW and PMI in the coming months, although the pace may soon begin to taper off. The OECD leading indicator signals that Ifo expectations could continue to rise strongly in the coming months. A sharp increase in Ifo expectations has never

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US: August Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence rose in August to 54.1 from 47.4 after dropping for the two months prior. Consumer expectations surged to 73.5 from 63.4, while confidence in the present situation also increased to 24.9 from 23.3. Consumer’s view of the present business situation remains weak with 8.6% (from 8.9%) believing that conditions are good, while 45.6% (from 46.5%) think they are bad. However, future expectations improved with those expecting better conditions rising to 22.4% from 18.4% and those

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US Morning Briefing

Overnight News Asia: JGB’s edged up, buoyed by follow through support after a strong 20-year debt sale the previous day and gains by US Treasuries, but they were firmly capped as Tokyo’s Nikkei stock average advanced. JGBs were trading at 138.98 (+0.01) at 0615 BST. The Nikkei (+1.36%) hit its highest close in 10 months after US data strengthened hopes for an economic recovery, but trade was cautious ahead of an August 30 election in Japan. Toyota Motor Corp. gained after a source said it

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Currency Currents

Key News • German business confidence rose for a fifth month in August (Bloomberg) • Japan’s exports fell 36.5 percent in July from a year earlier. (Reuters) • South Africa’s inflation rate fell to 6.7 percent in July, the lowest in 23 months. (Bloomberg) • German import prices fell by 12.6 percent year-on-year in July. (Reuters)   Quotable  “It isn’t that they can’t see the solution.  It is that they can’t see the problem.”

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USD higher, German IFO beats expectations

FX Highlights USD is trading mixed to firmer with investors not sure how to trade improving US economic data, will USD be supported by US recovery or pressured by improving risk appetite? Will concern about the strength of the US recovery and threat of double-dip recession spark safe haven demand for USD? US consumer demand will likely remain weak, US recovery speculation is unlikely to take to USD much higher, USD is also vulnerable to rising US deficit as the Obama administration raises its

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London Gold Market Report

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The Tyranny of the CPM

Felix Salmon submits:

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Equity markets as decisive factor

Currencies without initiative Equity markets as decisive factor US dollar EURUSD has shown only little movement in the past weeks. The exchange rate fluctuated within the well-known band of 1.41 to 1.43. The data from both economic regions coincided in indicating a recovery, with Euroland coming up with the bigger (positive) surprises. However, ultimately this was not enough to induce any substantial positioning on the foreign exchange markets, which was not the least due to the holiday season

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South Africa: Inflation declines but only slowly

South African inflation dropped to 6.7% y/y in July, down from June’s 6.9% y/y, slightly higher than the consensus expectation of 6.6% y/y and our forecast of 6.2% y/y Details Statistics South Africa published inflation numbers for July today. July’s inflation dropped to 6.7% y/y – slightly higher than the consensus expectation of 6.6% y/y and our forecast of 6.2% y/y. The main culprit was higher prices in housing and utilities, which in turn were the result of higher prices for electricity,

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