Today in Commodities: Potential Reversals
March 19, 2010 by Seeking Alpha
Filed under Tips
Original Article from Seeking Alpha Dollar Currencies
Matthew Bradbard submits:
We may have hit a pivotal turning point in a number of markets today. We will need to see confirmation of reversals early next week; stay tuned.
Crude will finish the last trading day of the week 2% lower, but will manage to hold onto the $80 level. April will go off the board next week and May will become the front month. We continue to expect oil to find resistance around $82 and support around $77. We are still suggesting that clients position themselves to take advantage of a probe to the mid $70’s in coming weeks.
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Shorting the Pound
March 19, 2010 by Seeking Alpha
Filed under Tips
Original Article from Seeking Alpha Dollar Currencies
Sean Hannon submits:
When searching for new trades, I enjoy returning to past ideas. After all, if a trade done in the past looks attractive again, our research is simplified and the decision making process accelerated. Having done the initial work in the past, we rely upon our body of knowledge to strike again.
An instrument I have spent a great deal of time discussing in my weekly newsletter EPIC Insights has been the British pound. Having traded it many times over the past few months, profits have come from shorting the currency before it fell lower and then covering when it was set to rebound.
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Friday FX Interest Rate Brief
March 19, 2010 by Seeking Alpha
Filed under Tips
Original Article from Seeking Alpha Dollar Currencies
Andrew Wilkinson submits:
Once again bond markets are having a hard time maintaining a rally after the Fed’s earlier stand on its policy of maintaining low interest rates. Dealers continue to mull the potential for a second nudge higher in the Fed’s discount rate, which is overhanging market sentiment. As much as investors want to see a continuation of near-zero interest rates the threat of increases at the Fed’s symbolic rate serves to remind fixed income investors that benchmark interest rates may not be going up today, but that’s the general direction at some unspecified point. The relief rally in the Eurozone that’s helped push yields towards record lows also appears to be running tired of the story that Greek woes will splinter the Eurozone.
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Options, And Patience, Expire Today
March 19, 2010 by Seeking Alpha
Filed under Tips
Original Article from Seeking Alpha Dollar Currencies
Phil Davis submits:
Well, now we’re officially cashed out!
As I always do before options expiration, I reviewed our Buy List, which, this quarter, is a list of 37 stocks we’ve been playing since late December and, sadly, after reviewing 37 of our favorite investments very carefully this week, I could only conclude that cashing them out was the only decision I could be comfortable with. Of 66 trades we had on our 37 stocks, 64 are winners with an average return since 2/8 of 28%. Since most of the trades were designed to make 40% for the year, it just seems silly not to take the money and run now, on March 19th.
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Trends in the Euro, Sterling and the Yen
March 19, 2010 by Seeking Alpha
Filed under Tips
Original Article from Seeking Alpha Dollar Currencies
Marc Chandler submits:
Euro: When the Range Breaks It Could Really Break
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The Smartest Parts of the IT Market
March 19, 2010 by Seeking Alpha
Filed under Investment Ideas
Original Article from Seeking Alpha Editor’s Pick
Some people always face the wrong way. Take the case of the average IT analyst. Many come from an industry background, and as a result they cannot but help see the world through the lens of desktop PCs, servers, outsourcing and enterprise software systems. This is unfortunate, because over the last decade corporate IT growth has been meager and the prospects do not look that much brighter.
In 2000, $371 billion was spent on PC hardware. By last year, this had shrunk to $326 billion, according to estimates from Gartner, a US based market researcher. This number includes the value of PCs, servers, printers and storage. For further confirmation, I suggests you examine the 10-year price charts for Microsoft (MSFT), Dell (DELL), or Intel (INTC). They are not quite flatlining, but the pulse is weak.
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Friday FX Brief: Canadian Dollar in Purgatory
March 19, 2010 by Seeking Alpha
Filed under Tips
Original Article from Seeking Alpha Dollar Currencies
Andrew Wilkinson submits:
A jump in the core inflation rate in Canada has dealers left wondering how much longer the Bank of Canada will be able to maintain its conditional commitment to a near-zero interest rate policy. February data rose above the 2% target and leaves the central bank floundering against a January prediction that not only would the first quarter core rate average 1.6%, but also that inflation wouldn’t disturb the central rate until the third quarter. Growing expectations surrounding the economy and the relative monetary response compared to United States has had investors plundering the so-called loonie lately driving its value back towards parity. The response today was another surge in the local dollar.
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A U.S. Debt Rating Downgrade: Not a Realistic Concern
March 19, 2010 by Seeking Alpha
Filed under Investment Ideas
Original Article from Seeking Alpha Editor’s Pick
Babak submits:
This market has shrugged off basically everything thrown at it: unemployment, consumer sentiment, sovereign debt crises in Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Greece, the list goes on and on. The latest is the concern that the US and other large Western countries like Germany, France, and the UK would lose their gold-plated AAA debt rating.
In the most recent Moody’s quarterly “Aaa Sovereign Monitor” report, they cite concerns about “debt affordability” and hint that it is possible for the unthinkable to happen. This of course was picked up by all major media outlets and the echo chamber went into full effect.
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GoldCore Update: Gold Volatile on Weaker Euro and Renewed Greek Concerns
March 19, 2010 by Seeking Alpha
Filed under Tips
Original Article from Seeking Alpha Dollar Currencies
Mark O’Byrne submits:
Gold
Gold finished trading last night in the US at $1,124.05/oz with a small gain of 0.11%. Gold rose in Asian trading and has been erratic and volatile in European and US trading. It is currently trading at $1,127.80/oz in US dollars. In euro and GBP terms, it is trading up 1% at €827.60/oz and up 0.5% to £739.18/oz, respectively.
Gold has been erratic and volatile with sharp swings in value due to currency uncertainty. The euro has fallen due to renewed concerns about the Greek financial situation and disputes as to whether the EU or the IMF will help bail out the near bankrupt Greek economy.
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Is Choosing Not to Book Profits Now Like Going After Pennies in Front of a Steamroller?
March 19, 2010 by Seeking Alpha
Filed under Tips
Original Article from Seeking Alpha Dollar Currencies
Macro Man submits:
Does the investment proposition to the left look attractive to you? Picking pennies up off the street ahead of an onrushing (ok, oncrawling) steamroller? If the past few years have demonstrated anything, it’s that while such a strategy can work on occasion, those who get greedy and stay for the last few pennies will eventually get flattened.
It seems as if this year, many (though by no means all) of the more popular profitable trading strategies have involved picking up pennies in front of the proverbial steamroller. The fabled front-end roll-up trade, discussed in this space on several prior occasions, is a prime example.
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