New SPDR Russia ETF Highlights Risks to Russian Equities

March 12, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Investment Ideas

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Editor’s Pick

Michael Johnston submits:

The SPDR S&P Russia ETF (RBL) began trading on Thursday, becoming just the second U.S.-listed ETF offering exposure to one of the world’s largest countries and most unique economies. RBL will seek to track the performance of the S&P Russia Capped BMI Index, a float adjusted market cap-weighted benchmark consisting of publicly-traded companies domiciled in Russia.

Russia’s Economy

Russia’s commodity-intensive economy was battered during the recent downturn as demand for raw materials and energy resources plummeted. Since bottoming out, however, Russian equities have delivered huge returns, thanks in large part to a surge in demand for materials from China, Brazil, and other emerging markets (see the Top Ten Performing ETFs Since The Market Bottom).


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The ‘Sterling Crisis’ Increases Day by Day

March 12, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Investment Ideas

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Editor’s Pick

Cynicus Economicus submits:

It seems to be that the jury is still out on the prospects for the UK economy; there are still a few analysts that believe that the UK might suddenly motor ahead. However, increasingly the commentators, analysts, and even some politicians, are coming to the view that the UK is in deep, deep trouble. For regular readers of this site, this will come as no surprise, as they will know that the brewing crisis in the UK was apparent many years ago, and that the government’s action has only served to increase the scope of any coming crisis.

One particular commentary in the Telegraph sums up many of the concerns for the UK economy, as follows:

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The ‘Sterling Crisis’ Increases Day by Day

March 12, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Tips

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Dollar Currencies

Cynicus Economicus submits:

It seems to be that the jury is still out on the prospects for the UK economy; there are still a few analysts that believe that the UK might suddenly motor ahead. However, increasingly the commentators, analysts, and even some politicians, are coming to the view that the UK is in deep, deep trouble. For regular readers of this site, this will come as no surprise, as they will know that the brewing crisis in the UK was apparent many years ago, and that the government’s action has only served to increase the scope of any coming crisis.

One particular commentary in the Telegraph sums up many of the concerns for the UK economy, as follows:

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High Conviction: Opportunities in Africa and the Mideast

March 12, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Tips

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Dollar Currencies

Jamie Allsopp submits:

Jamie Allsopp joined London-based Insparo Asset Management in November 2009, bringing nearly a decade of first-hand experience of African markets to his role, which combines investment research and allocation with marketing the firm’s Africa and Middle East fund in Insparo’s target regions.

Jamie was previously with New Star Asset Management for eight years. During his tenure, Jamie rose from equity analyst to portfolio manager for two of New Star´s high profile funds. In 2007, Jamie launched the New Star Heart of Africa Fund, which invested in Sub Saharan equities.

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Time to Short the Yen?

March 11, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Tips

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Dollar Currencies

Wall Street Post Game submits:

We saw how the collapse of Greece brought down the Euro. Many say that this is just the beginning for Europe – Spain, Portugal, Ireland and other neighboring countries are very unstable. Watching the Euro plummet made me question my take on other currencies as well. The following is why I believe the Japanese Yen may face a downfall.

According to Alexander Tepper of TKNG Capital, the Japanese labor force is shrinking because the population is starting to age and retire. The retirees will demand Japanese goods, then eventually go to imports because of the lack of production from fewer workers. As the Japanese retire and exit the work force, the economy will face an unhealthy supply shock, which will inevitably lead to the Yen falling. The population is declining, and so is the savings rate. This is not a good sign for the economy, or the currency. This will make financing government deficits an incredible challenge.


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The Bullish Case for Russia, Round II

March 11, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Investment Ideas

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Long Investment

So a couple of weeks ago, I wrote a small post on Russian stocks and why oil prices above $80 dollars per barrel make Russia a compelling opportunity for investors with a global mindset. The reaction was rather poor. There were quite a few comments, albeit the vast majority of the comments were most definitely negative. As I recall, the number one recurring theme that seemed to scare investors about Russian equities was the rule of law or more importantly, the lack of rule of law.
First of all, with so many comments slanted towards the negative on the issue, I can only conclude that Russian securities must have a substantial risk premium built into them and furthermore, should Russia become as stable as any other fully-developed nation, this risk premium will come out of Russian assets, and anyone with the courage, and some luck on timing, to have invested in Russian assets will earn some very compelling returns on their investment. Nonetheless, the concerns over corruption and rule of law are not without merit. In my opinion they just don’t automatically rule out Russia as a place to invest some portion of your assets.
Funny enough, In the Jan/Feb 2010 issue of Harvard Business Review there was an article written by Rawi Abdelal titled, “The Promise and Peril of Russia’s Resurgent State”. Some of the key points made in this article are that:
“Russia isn’t a falling economic power, as it was during the early 1990s, but it isn’t rising in the same way Brazil, China, and India are. That’s because, unlike its peer group, the country is–unhappily–dependent on exports of commodities such as oil and natural gas, whose prices are volatile.”
The implication of this argument is that it is in the best interest of Russia to develop other areas of their economy, thus diversifying away from an overwhelming reliance on commodity exports.
The author goes on to argue that, “provided that the world economy starts growing again in 2010, however, Russia may not have much to worry about externally. Oil prices could increase to stabilize well above $80, and the rising tide of petrodollars should lift the economy. Energy companies–particularly those based in Europe, where imports of Russian gas will surely surge for several decades–have no choice but to invest in Russia. Capital inflows, which reached $80 billion in 2008 (a quarter came from foreign investment; loans and portfolio investments made up the rest), will pick up.”
Naturally the implications of increasing capital flows will lead to increased consumption among Russian consumers which of course helps businesses outside of natural resource and infrastructure sectors flourish. In the meantime, “Russia’s infrastructure needs modernization, so government spending has risen in recent years; and for political reasons, it won’t be cut anytime soon. There’s a great deal of money to be made in Russia as the economy recovers slowly but perhaps more quickly than the U.S. economy.”
The HBR article does go on to address issues about the rule of law and corruption. Specifically, the author cites an open letter that Putin wrote a few months before winning the presidential contest in March 2000, in which he wrote;
You are not sure of the stability of your business because you can’t rely on the force of law or the honesty of the officials. So you are dissatisfied with the services offered by the state and you refuse to pay all the taxes due. What’s more, you can live pretty comfortably while doing this. The state fails to get sufficient revenues to keep an impartial judicial system, it pays small salaries to its officials, and they take bribes. The result is a vicious circle.
In my opinion, this seems makes a pretty obvious case that Putin strived to make the Kremlin much stronger to enhance the rule of law and reduce corruption. According to the author, “Throughout his two terms, Putin was helped by rising commodity prices worldwide, which fueled rapid growth and generated budget surpluses.” To figures included in the article help paint the picture…


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A Forgotten Tech Name Is Breaking Out

March 11, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Investment Ideas

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Long Investment

Moby Waller submits:

A technology storage maker that was a "hot stock" of the 1990s is quietly breaking out to its highest levels in about 15 years. The company is Sybase (SY).

Taking a quick look at the fundamentals, its kind of a mixed bag. The company is heavily reliant on one major customer EMC (EMC), which is always a risk … yet it may be well-positioned to benefit from coming broadband pipeline growth via Cisco (CSCO) and others. In addition, one prominent commentator speculated that it would be a good fit for an acquisition by Hewlett-Packard (HP).

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Is the Tide Turning Back in Takeda’s Favor?

March 11, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Investment Ideas

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Long Investment

EP Vantage submits:

With so many high-profile pipeline setbacks over the past couple of years, could the tide be turning back in Takeda’s (TKPHF.PK) favor with regard to one of its biggest and most valuable products?

Wednesday’s patent litigation settlement with Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI) will delay the launch of Watson’s generic version of key diabetes drug Actos until August 2012, a full 19 months after expiry of the drug’s main patent in January 2011, the point at which the market is currently expecting significant generic competition. If Takeda can similarly ward off other generic threats the gains could be significant, adding $1.9bn to profits from Actos (see tables below). Takeda’s shares gained 1% in trading Thursday to reach a 12-month high of ¥4,075.

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Force Protection Stuns Investors

March 11, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Investment Ideas

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Long Investment

Zachary ScheidtZachary Scheidt submits:

<img src="http://genuineforextrading.com/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/d2b8e_saupload_frpt_logo.PNG" align="right" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-3937" style="margin-left: 5px; margin-right: 5px;" alt="Force Protection Inc. (FRPT)” hspace=”6″ vspace=”6″ width=”200″ height=”42″ />Investors in Force Protection Inc. (FRPT) were eagerly awaiting the company’s earnings report when the market closed on Monday. After trading in a range between $4.00 and $5.00 for eight months, the company was overdue to report some positive news. The release did not disappoint and by the time the market opened Tuesday morning, buyers were falling all over eachother to get their hands on the stock.

Force Protection is a manufacturer of armored vehicles and other products that increase survival rates on the battle field. With the United States and a number of allies in a sustained war against terror on several fronts, there is significant demand for FRPT’s products. This was made clear as the company announced revenue of $289 million which represents a 21% increase over the fourth quarter last year. Management attributed the increase to modernization, spares, and its sustainment business lines. Offsetting the strength was a lower number of vehicles which were shipped.


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Valuable Ideas From the Value Investing Congress

March 11, 2010 by Seeking Alpha  
Filed under Investment Ideas

Original Article from Seeking Alpha Long Investment

Jeff Moore submits:

When considering making a trip to either California or New York to attend the Value Investing Congress, it is important to gauge the returns that you will get from this potential investment. As many of you know, I recently ventured to NYC for the previous Value Investing Congress. Simply put, I thought that the experience was great, full of useful information, and of course a terrific excuse to take a much undeserved vacation.

Various memories of the congress still stick out to me: I met some new people, and also had good conversations with old acquaintances. David Einhorn’s speech was memorable (as I am sure many of you have read), but the Q&A was even better. Bill Ackman espoused enough knowledge to make an intelligent layman feel as simple as Glen Beck. Whitney Tilson highlighted how we are not out of the woods with housing, but that the markets may not tank as a result, while John Paulson was as informative as ever.

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