Pressure on Greece and EUR Ease
Original Article from ACM – Newsletter
Risk appetite has been cautiously creeping back into FX markets at the start of this trading week. While a one day doesn’t make a trend, the broader environment is shaping up to support a sustained rally in risk sentiment. First of all, the passing of the new austerity measures by the Greek congress on Friday was a step in the right direction. While unions immediately called for a general strike…
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Greece Far From Out Of The Woods, Despite Successful Debt Sale
Original Article from ACM – Newsletter
This week’s sale of Greek debt has gone unequivocally well; with pension funds and insurance companies alike lapping up the chance to secure 10 year bonds at a mouth-watering 6.35% yield. Compare that with Spain’s similar 5 year offering yesterday which went for 3% and the fact that this yield represents a hefty 295 basis points more than comparable German debt, and it’s clear to see why…
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Waiting on the BoE & ECB
Original Article from ACM – Newsletter
We still can’t shake the admission from the Greek Prime Minister that there were “holes” in the budget and tax collection was in “shambles”. While markets have initially embraced the Greek announcement of a 3rd set of new austerity programs, we have a hard time believing that these optimistic goals are actually attainable. It’s easy to austerity “grandstand”, the hard part is execution and we are…
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Waiting on Greeces New Austerity Package
Original Article from ACM – Newsletter
Barring a bombshell from the Greek austerity press conference, we believe markets will stay relatively quiet ahead of the BoE, ECB and Fridays NFP. In this environment, we will be looking to play the daily ranges. Leaks of the announcement conference have spilled out, with media outlets citing Greek government sources, saying that the government has decided on $6.5 billion in extra austerity…
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RBA Hike Fails to Lift AUD & Waiting for the BoC
Original Article from ACM – Newsletter
Markets were quiet until Europe woke up, where we saw a steady unwind of risk. The EURUSD traded down to 1.3490 from 1.3560, while the GBPUSD fell to 1.4860 from 1.4960. While in the mid-term we are short risk right now these pairs are well oversold and we would expect a near term term risk rally. There was really no single catalyst for the move, rather a continuation of yesterday’s…
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Speculation of an Evolving Bailout Plan
Original Article from ACM – Newsletter
Markets seem to be in a state of paralysis, unable to find a clear direction this Monday morning. The EURUSD was contained in a tight 100 pip range, while the USDJPY languished right below the Ichimoku daily could cover. Starting this week, the early part of March is filled with events which have the ability to truly shift market direction. This week is packed with macro G10 economic data…
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Markets are Buzzing About a Potential CNY Shift…but we have heard it before
Original Article from ACM – Newsletter
The EUR and GBP had a very tough day yesterday, while the JPY was by far the primary beneficiary. Risk aversion was rampant, due to the worries over a Greek downgrade and poor US economic data. This includes a durable goods number, which came out strong but, in further investigation, was weaker than the headlines had suggested. While the EUR was suffering from gloomy comments issued by rating…
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Potential Greek Austerity Hitting Home
Original Article from ACM – Newsletter
It seems that in the last few days the situation in Greece has taken a palpable turn for the worse. Not that any new economic revelations have revealed themselves, but rather there has begun a noticeable shift from the contained economic realm to the social realm. First, credit rating agencies S&P and Moody’s have both issued warnings that Greece might face further downgrades if the country…
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Waiting on Bernanke’s testimony
Original Article from ACM – Newsletter
Risk appetite took a significant hit yesterday, as German IFO and US consumer confidence failed to impress the markets and concerns over Greece’s impending 24 hour strike weigh on sentiment. US equity closed down and today Asian and European markets followed. This was in spite of the positive economic data from Japan, that looked encouraging, as Jan trade surplus Y85.2 bln vs. Y108.5 bln deficit…
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Dovish King Sends GBP Plummeting Lower
Original Article from ACM – Newsletter
The lull in USD strength at the start of this week has quickly reversed this morning as lower than forecast IFO data in Germany and dovish central bank rhetoric from the UK has once again sent traders scurrying back to risk aversion trades. The BoE’s Governor King spoke to the Treasury select committee in London, opening with the assessment that the UK economy was still fragile and the risks to…
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